Trump advisers push for even higher targets for NATO defense spending

Donald Trump’s advisers have floated the idea of ​​requiring NATO allies to spend 3% of gross domestic product on defence, more than a target set by alliance members, and a warning that tensions will escalate further if Trump returns to the White House.

The idea of ​​calling on NATO members to spend far more than the current 2% target — which many allies have recently met — came up during discussions at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week, said people familiar with the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity because the matter is not public.

The increased target is still just an idea and has not yet become formal policy for the Trump team, these people said. Trump has long complained that allies don’t spend enough on their militaries, attacking members for not meeting a 2014 commitment to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense.

The higher target would require hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending from allies already struggling to control government debt. Only three NATO countries — Poland, the United States and Greece — spent 3% or more of their gross domestic product on defense last year, according to NATO.

A person familiar with Trump’s position described this latest figure as a negotiating tactic aimed at pressuring allies not to become complacent when boosting defense spending. At a NATO summit in 2018, Trump suggested allies spend even more — 4% of GDP — on defense, a goal that even the U.S. currently does not meet.

Such a demand would bring Trump into line with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, who forged a relationship with Trump when he was US president and earlier this year called on NATO to meet its 3% target. The three Baltic states have pledged to raise their defence spending to 3% of GDP.

Although Trump could seek to change NATO’s target, officially doing so would require the approval of all alliance members. In 2014, NATO nations agreed to the so-called Wales Declaration, a non-binding commitment in which they aimed to “move toward the 2% guideline” within a decade.

NATO’s defence spending has become a major talking point in the US presidential election campaign, with Trump saying at a rally in Florida in early July that he would not honour the alliance’s commitments to mutual defence if a country did not meet its spending targets.

Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment. But in a statement late last year, Trump co-campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said that “no aspect of staff appointments or policy announcements for a future presidential run should be considered official” unless it is from Trump or his campaign team.

Another person confirmed that the higher target was discussed in Milwaukee, but there was some debate over whether setting it would be a good idea. The person said a lower target is a useful tool because all member countries have committed to it, while setting a higher target would be impossible to implement and could break the alliance’s unity.

Both Trump and President Joe Biden’s administrations deserve credit for the surge in military spending by North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies over the past few years. In 2024, 23 of the alliance’s 32 members are to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, up from nine in 2020. This year, many more countries have pledged to reach this goal.

A NATO spokesman said the alliance itself has made clear that 2% is only a baseline and not a ceiling. A communiqué issued at the recent NATO leaders summit in Washington said that in some cases spending beyond that target would be needed to address shortfalls.

Global Insight: NATO defense spending rises, but perhaps not enough

But experts say that has more to do with the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than any flattery from Biden or Trump. In recent months, European leaders have said they expect to spend more on their security as the U.S. focuses on other priorities.

The 3% target would be a high standard for NATO allies. Germany would need to spend about $900 billion more annually, while for France, Italy, Spain and Canada the cost would be about $500 billion, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.

Publicly, Trump’s aides have offered reassurances about NATO, saying the former president’s demand that he pay more means he sees value in the alliance.

“I would say Donald Trump is more concerned about NATO than any other president, because he’s trying to give it more money,” Richard Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, said at a Bloomberg News event during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week.

With assistance from Stephanie Lai.

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