This new asteroid can be dangerous. What is the possibility that it can hit the earth? Scientists say… | Mint

ASTEROID 2024 YRR4, a newly discovered Earth’s object, has attracted the attention of scientists due to its size and possible impact risk. Measuring between 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 ft) wide, it is sufficient to cause significant localized damage if it had to hit the earth. While the possibility of impact on December 22, 2032, asteroids have crossed the 1% probability range – an unusual phenomenon for this size items – to transmit formal information to planetary defense agencies. NASA continues to track 2024 YRR4 closely, as further observations can either dismiss the danger or refine the possibility of its effect.

Asteroids were discovered by the Final Warning System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024, as per the CNEOS analysis of the near-Earth asteroid, as stated in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

NASA stated that the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has been alerted with the US government agencies and the Office of External Space Affairs of the United Nations Office.

Current risk evaluation

According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 2024 YR4 is currently classified as Torino Scale 3, which means its effect is a small chance of effects, but sufficient to cause localized damage to cause localized damage If this strike was to be done. It is uncommon for this size asteroid to reach Torino scale 3, as most of the objects with more than 1% effects are quite low and burns in the atmosphere.

The center for NEO Studies (CNEOS), as reported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), currently classifies 2024 YRR4 as a Torino Scale 3 asteroid, which indicates a small possibility of effect Is, but is sufficient in a size that causes local damage if there is a collision. It is rare for this size asteroid to reach Torino scale 3, as most of the objects with possibilities above 1% are very small and are usually decomposed in the atmosphere.

NASA scientists emphasized that predictions change daily to influence new data. Initially the previous NEO has often been rejected as a threat in relation to possibilities as additional comments have improved their orbital models.

Estimated path and effect probability

By January 31, 2025, 2024 YR4 is moving away from 48 million kilometers (30 million mi) from the Earth. Asteroid is expected to return to the area around the Earth in 2028, but NASA confirmed that there was no risk of impact during that approach.

If 2024 yr4 was to affect the Earth in 2032, the possible impact area would somewhere with a risk corridor: Eastern Pacific Ocean, Northern South America, Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Arabian, South Asia.

NASA estimates that asteroids will enter the Earth’s environment at about 17 km/cm (38,000 mph), which can cause significant regional effects depending on the effect location.

Ongoing observation and future predictions

NASA’s orange effect monitoring system has been tracking 2024 YR4 since its discovery. It was first reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) on 27 January 2025. Many observatories are actively monitoring the movements of asteroids. The observation will continue until April 2025, when it faints to track the ground-based telescopes. However, space-based infrared telescope can provide data ahead of that period.

Continuous risk evaluation

NASA’s planetary defense experts will continue to update the risk evaluation of 2024 YR4 as the new data emerges. The orange impact monitoring system will assure the trajectory and provide updated effects over time.

While the possibility of impact remains low, NASA’s ongoing observation and international cooperation ensures that any possible threat will be well monitored and, if necessary, will be met with mitigation strategies.