When a severe heatwave killed more than 70,000 people in Europe in 2003, it was seen as a once-in-a-millennium event. Today, experts say such extreme heat can be expected once a decade. Last year the months of June, July and August were the hottest on record worldwide. August 2023 was on average 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the same months between 1850 and 1900. This year, the situation could be even worse.
Bad news is on every screen this summer. In Saudi Arabia, temperatures reached 50 degrees Celsius in the shade, killing 1,300 pilgrims who had gone to Mecca for the Hajj. On June 23, 100 million Americans were living in heat warning zones, with temperatures in Baltimore and Philadelphia nearing 40 degrees Celsius. Indians suffered 40,000 cases of heatstroke between March and mid-June, with Delhi recently seeing 40 consecutive days over 40 degrees Celsius. This is more than a series of freak events, it is the new normal.
The good news, though, is that deaths can be avoided and economic disruption minimized even as temperatures rise. Wealthy, warm places like Phoenix, Kuwait and Singapore are adapting, as did parts of Europe after that heat wave two decades ago. Rather than simmering helplessly, the rest of the world should watch and learn. The basic idea is simple: get people out of the sun and into the cool.
Extreme heat can cause heatstroke, cardiovascular problems and dehydration. People who are not used to it are more vulnerable. So are the elderly, who often have fragile health and find it hard to move to a cooler place if they get stuck. And the poor suffer the most: they have to work in the sun and live in cramped, poorly ventilated houses. A Mumbai slum can be 6 degrees Celsius hotter than nearby apartments.
Air conditioning, where affordable, is one part of the answer. If powered by renewable energy, it’s not bad for the climate, and it can save lives. A study in the Lancet concluded that there were 345,000 heat-related deaths among people over the age of 65 worldwide in 2019, and that without air conditioning the number would have been 50% higher. So environmentalists are wrong to shun this wonderful technology. Since the organisers of the Paris Olympics have decided not to install air conditioners in the athletes’ quarters, many teams will simply bring their own air conditioners.
Rethinking the way cities are built could also help. In Singapore, architects design buildings to channel wind around the city, while planting trees on a large scale provides shade and retains moisture. However, redesigning a city takes time and a lot of money. So quick and cheap solutions are needed.
Three things are most important. First, workplaces and schools must be more flexible. States like California and Washington in the US have rules that mandate shade and water breaks for those working outdoors when it’s extremely hot. More places need similar guidelines. Also, children should be allowed to study from home and public events should be cancelled when temperatures are too high.
The second step is to create more cool public spaces to provide relief and refuge. Some US cities have “cooling centers” – as do India and Vietnam. Often these are simple buildings with air conditioning, ranging from libraries to offices, that can be temporarily opened to all. Even simple adaptations can make a difference: painting the ceiling white can reduce the temperature indoors by several degrees.
Finally, governments and citizens need to be better prepared, especially in places not used to experiencing extreme heat. After an emergency in 2003, France was forced to create a national plan for heatwaves, which included an early warning system and guidelines on everything from sporting events to training for medical staff. During a record-breaking heatwave in 2019, the country suffered 90% fewer casualties than in 2003.
Rules should be set by central governments, but the responsibility for enforcing them should be given to cities and towns. Since extreme heat varies according to local conditions, they are best suited to sound the alarm, and citizens can hold local governments accountable if they fail to plan properly. Extreme heat is now inevitable. Increased suffering and deaths are not.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. Original content can be found at www.economist.com.
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