Sheikh Hasina’s resignation: Is India’s security at risk? The new Bangladesh could be run by allies of Pakistan and China | Mint

Fifteen years after the Sheikh Hasina government came to power, Bangladesh is witnessing a conflict between the army and the interim government. The Bangladesh Awami League leader resigned on Monday, August 5, and fled to India. Hasina’s resignation was announced by Bangladesh Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman. The army chief also informed that he has invited political parties to form an interim government.

Hours later, Bangladesh President Mohammad Shahabuddin ordered the release of jailed Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chief Khaleda Zia, a move that fuelled speculation about whether the BNP would form an interim government in Bangladesh.

If the BNP comes to power, it could prove disastrous for the Indian subcontinent led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which is already surrounded by anti-India neighbours.

Sheikh Hasina fled to India on Monday.

Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India is not a surprise, as she and Bangladesh’s powerful neighbour have a long-standing alliance. India has been a key supporter of her during her tenure.

The relationship has contributed to growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, especially as Hasina’s popularity has waned.

India-Bangladesh security dynamics, regional stability

India has traditionally seen the security of its northeastern states, many of which border Bangladesh, as dependent on its strategic presence in that country. This has been made possible by Hasina’s concession of goods transit privileges and her crackdown on militant groups operating in Bangladesh that are hostile to India.

The biggest concern for India was the anti-India militant groups active in Bangladesh. Apart from this, Sheikh Hasina and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a record-breaking ten meetings in 2023.

Delhi will have to decide whether to continue supporting its unpopular ally and risk alienating the public and damaging relations with Bangladesh in the long term.

With Hasina’s resignation the issue has now been resolved.

The changing political scenario in Bangladesh has dealt a major blow to India’s security strategy. Being surrounded by neighbouring countries with tense relations like Pakistan and China, losing Bangladesh as an ally is a major blow.

The fundamentalists are set to take over Bangladesh with the help of their proxies in Pakistan and China. Now friends of India’s two adversaries – Pakistan and China – have won in Bangladesh too: opposition leader Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami.

If Khaleda Zia becomes president of Pakistan, India could find itself caught between Pakistan and a possibly hostile Bangladesh. This change could make India’s regional influence and strategic position more difficult.

If relations with Bangladesh deteriorate under a possible Khaleda Zia regime, India will lose control over the Bay of Bengal.

The Bay of Bengal is a strategically located region that stretches across the Indian Ocean region from Africa to Indonesia. It is a vital part of the region located between Bangladesh, Myanmar and India. The region is important because of its proximity to the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s major maritime chokepoints that connects the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea.

Bangladesh is very important for connecting the geographically isolated northeastern states of India to the Bay of Bengal. There are five Indian states that share their border with Bangladesh – West Bengal, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura and Assam.

Is the pro-Pakistan Chinese army ready to occupy Bangladesh?

The removal of Sheikh Hasina was possibly part of Pakistan’s long-term plan to replace the India-friendly Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) with a pro-Pakistan government.

There are reports that Pakistan has helped the Jamaat and its student wing by supporting their activities, informing them about their strategies and providing security during crackdowns by Hasina’s forces. First post.

According to the article, Pakistan may want to hold elections to support the BNP-led government and gain international credibility.

Is India losing its stable neighbours?

In 2024 the new President of Maldives expelled Indian troops to strengthen ties with China.

Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban, while Sri Lanka’s stance with India remains uncertain, and the ban on docking of Chinese ships is set to end soon.

Nepal is also moving towards China. There are signs of change coming from Bhutan too.

With the resignation of Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh, India has lost one of its most trusted allies, which is increasingly influenced by anti-India sentiments and Chinese interests.