How can BJP+ achieve its target of 400 seats? Top surveyor Pradeep Gupta explains

The results of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections 2024 will be declared on June 4.

Pradeep Gupta, managing director of Axis My India, a well-known surveyor and consumer data intelligence firm, believes that the elections so far have gone as expected.

Also read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Complete list of voting on 93 seats in the third phase

In an interview with Livemint, Gupta talked about the election campaign, Modi factor, Rahul Gandhi, voter turnout and how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies can achieve the target of 400 seats in the Lok Sabha elections 2024 . Some excerpts from the interview:

The third phase of elections is to be held on Tuesday. How do you view the elections so far?

This election is no different. The outgoing National Democratic Alliance government will discuss the claims and how they changed people’s lives. The challengers (India block) have no option but to make promises. And people vote on the basis of these two things.

More than 90 percent of the time, people evaluate incumbents based on their track record, as has been the case so far. The first two phases of voting mostly covered southern India – Tamil Nadu, Kerala Karnataka. Some smaller states, North Eastern states are also covered.

In the third phase, voting will be held on 25 seats in Gujarat, 10 seats in UP, 14 seats in Karnataka and some seats in Maharashtra and Hyderabad region. On all these seats, political parties have kept a particular caste group and demography in mind during the campaign.

Also read: BJP, allies won over 100 seats in first two phases of Lok Sabha elections: Amit Shah

It is very difficult to predict the result based on these steps. But yes, overall it is on expected lines.

As we move towards the third phase, do we see any change in the strategy of either camp?

We know that BJP has a solid machinery and it puts all its efforts in the election campaign. Political campaigns depend on demography. This is what we have seen in the campaign so far. Both the parties (NDA and India Bloc) will have to prepare their strategy based on the election states. All the discussion about what the previous governments did for a particular community focused on Karnataka as the second and third phase of elections were held in the state.

There is also concern about low turnout. Do you think this will impact the results?

Let me tell you that voting percentage has nothing to do with the speeches of politicians or the campaigns of parties. Voting percentage is low due to factors such as weather, summer holidays and nature of the constituency. Metro cities, where voting took place in the second phase, saw a huge decline in turnout due to voter apathy.

Rahul Gandhi talks about caste and Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks about Muslims, Mangalsutra? Do you see a polarized election?

First, in a political leader’s 40-minute long speech, an average of five minutes is about sensitive issues.

During the assembly elections in five states, we saw that caste was an issue raised by the opposition. Obviously, BJP will bring an answer to this. The same trend has been happening in the previous elections also. During the first phase the narrative is on specific issues. And as we move toward the next steps, bigger issues begin to be discussed.

What factors influence voting priority?

Unless a promise brings about a concrete change in people’s lives, it will not change voting preferences. I always say, out of 100 votes cast, at least 80 votes are based on which government will affect their livelihood. Other issues that have no tangible impact on people’s livelihood will have no impact on voters’ preferences.

Even today people vote on basic issues, roads, education, health, PDS, farmers issues. Other issues will be inflation and unemployment. These issues are global and have always existed. People vote for those parties and individuals whom they consider more suitable to solve these issues.

Where do you think are the chances of NDA and India Bloc till the third phase?

The current government is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Prime Minister has been winning elections continuously since the days of Gujarat and is performing well. The same is true for other leaders when it comes to delivery. For example, take Naveen Patnaik, he has broken two Modi waves.

Also read: BJP ‘may come below 200’ seats: Sanjay Jha told ‘why will India Bloc win’ Lok Sabha elections 2024

The opposition India faction is a mix of regional satraps – Stalin, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav. These are popular leaders whose appeal is limited to their states. One party of the Indian faction with all-India appeal is Congress. But party leader Rahul Gandhi has never held any post in the government, not even a minister. So people cannot evaluate him on the basis of delivery.

Each state has a different party and a different leader. You cannot look at Tamil Nadu the way you look at UP. That is, to be exact, different states show different results.

BJP and its allies have set a target of 400 seats? Do you think this can be achieved? if so, how?

This question can be answered by looking at the 2024 elections based on the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 303 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats. In such a situation, NDA needs 47 more seats than 2019 to achieve its target of 400 seats.

Also read: Third phase of Lok Sabha elections voting tomorrow: Tough fight for 3 members of Yadav family in Samajwadi Party stronghold

There are three groups based on the 2019 Lok Sabha election results. There are 10-12 states and union territories comprising 257 seats in which BJP+ won 238 seats and the opposition won 19 seats in 2019. This means a 94 percent strike rate for BJP+. These seats are in Bihar, MP, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa. so. I believe that based on the 2019 results, BJP has to improve only on 19 seats.

Then there is another group of 5 states which has around 100 seats. The opposition had won 96 per cent of these states – Tamil Nadu (+ Puducherry), Kerala, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Kashmir (3 seats).

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Published: 06 May 2024, 12:06 PM IST