Arabs in global damage to cascading extreme weather events

(Bloomberg) – First came a dry magic that crossed the land, then a spark, followed by some wind. Suddenly, the health of South Carolina was consumed by the flames of consumption.

More than 100 fire has been ignited in the state in the last weekend – even in the heart of the fire season unusually high. This state’s Forestry Commission spokesman Doug Wood said that it was a correct combination of fire, dry fuel and strong winds, which were combined to spread flames.

The South Carolina Disaster Compound is the latest high-profile example of the season, or there are two or more concurrent events that collectively deteriorate compared to a result, if each was in itself. This is a global phenomenon – and its prevalence in a warming world reflects further risks.

Malaysia recently fought with disastrous floods, killing at least five people, sent thousands of people running away from their homes, reduced palm oil production and caused mudslides throughout the region. In January, a cascading series of weather disasters led the historic Los Angeles Wildfier, killing 29.

Texas – Extreme weather American subscribers – have collided with a string of compound incidents in recent years. In 2021, the Great Freeze killed at least 200 people, which is tied back to a series of compound phenomena, as the previous year record smokehouse is in Creek Fire, with its roots in the drought of 2023 that killed the Great Plans.

As the planet is hot and the weather whiplash spreads, the events of the compound weather are designed to wreak even more havoc: a study climate damage published in nature last year can cost the global economy $ 38 trillion ($ 2005) per year by mid-century.

Debora Broansan, a climate risk scientist, who heads Debora Broanson and Associates, stated that Los Angeles leads the threat of several weather incidence in the fire to a large disaster. Two winters of the state saw two winters in a row of plenty of rain, which allowed two winter after allowing abundant vegetation to grow. Last year was one of the hottest in California records that dried the vegetation and entered a flash drought in the southern half of the state. In the late December, in the late December, the drought spread from about 17% in late December, when the fire broke out.

“LA experienced normal fire, but long -term dried and mixed with high temperatures – both are associated with climate change – the result was worse,” Broansan said. (Research found that climate change prime Los Angeles to burn 35% more.)

Cascading phenomena can be difficult to come with direct costs because the disadvantages are often longer than individual storms or fire. California’s fire has reduced the damage to reach $ 164 billion. In comparison, the financial tolls of droughts that were before from them are not yet to show in the assessment of any US government. Once the compound incident did not end after the fire, either: The region has seen heavy rains on the burning land, resulting in mudslides.

“It is a good example that all these things can play together to increase the dangers that we are facing all the things we are facing.” “And it was just the alignment of such weather events. You can argue that none of them had a place, the results must have reduced significantly. ,

A similar situation occurred in Australia, where there was a black summer fire of 2019-2020 after drought from 2017 to 2019, lengthening the insurance claims of up to $ 1.5 billion.

A weather and climate research scientist Daug Richardson at the University of New South Wales said that compound events have reduced the effects and they are relatively rare, making them difficult to do research.

He said, “We need to develop our model for better accounts for these types of interactions amidst various climate hazards at a spatial resolution, which allows us to consider how these threats can negotiate,” and said to create a big sample to assess the frequency of potential compound phenomena, he said.

Not all cascading weather ends in flames, though. Floods can occur when the rain saturates the soil and loosens the vegetation, the latter sets the phase for the showers so that more effects have more effects. It was part of the mechanics around the Malaysian floods, which also helped from extreme tide.

The states of Saba and Sarawak saw more than 27 inches (70 centimeters) of rain in January, making the soil saturated. Nurseleh bin Qasim, the principal director of the Research and Technical Development Area in the Malaysian Meteorological Department, said that the alignment of the Sun, Earth and Moon caused another storm as a tide.

An extreme event can also forget the other. For example, drought cuts the soil of moisture. Due to no additional water to evaporate, the energy of the sun is redirected to heat the energy in the air. The resulting hot weather then makes the drought worse.

“The atmosphere may have a reaction in the atmosphere,” said Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzeg, a project scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Brosnan said that large climate effects, such as sea-level growth, combine periels, as the building in exposed areas. In particular, there is a greater risk of landslides due to deforestation, while destroying mangroves and coral reefs spoils coastal floods.

Jacob ZSchechler, a compound event researcher at Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Germany, said that events in many areas simultaneously can also be “spatially mixed”. He pointed to 2024 floods, hitting many parts of Europe as a prime example. Record rains from Hurricane Boris killed air floods at least 29 people and caused widespread destruction in countries from Italy to Poland. Munich Ray estimated that the compound incident caused a loss of about 4.3 billion dollars, with about half of which was insured.

Zscheischler said, “Climate change has already increased the amount of rain during such events and will continue to do so.”

Brosnan warned that silent emergency management means “we are poorly behaved with complex events where the effects spread widely through a system.” There are examples for non-weather disasters, however, it can prove to be useful if the world has to be suited to more compound events.

Bruce Chong, director of climate and stability at the engineering firm Arup, stated that Japan’s earthquake preparation culture is a model.

“They know that there are earthquakes,” they said. “At everyday level, they are already aware and ready in many aspects, how the tasks between local communities and government are shared. This is something that everyone faces together. ,

-Brian with help from Ekahouse.

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