Bihar is one of the most politically important states of India – and one of the few states in the Hindi belt where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has never won a majority on its own.
The battle for 243 assembly seats, of which 122 are required to form the government, is being shaped by changing alliances, caste equations, criminal taint among the candidates and the growing clout of women voters.
This time an important question: Will the entry of political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party change the electoral mathematics? And, perhaps most importantly, can Nitish Kumar’s two-decade-long rule survive another term?
power equation
For nearly two decades, the power dynamics within Bihar’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) told a familiar story: the Janata Dal (United) led while the Bharatiya Janata Party followed, except for two periods with a cumulative three years when the former worked closely with the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led alliance.
The 2025 elections proved to be a turning point in the political power of JD(U) in the state, with the BJP coming on par. Both the parties are contesting on 101-101 seats, the remaining seats are being contested by other parties in the NDA alliance.
This comes in the backdrop of BJP winning more seats than JD(U) in the 2020 elections. The shift to the BJP’s growing dominance has been gradual – in 2005 and 2010, the JD(U) contested about 50 more seats than the BJP and firmly established itself as the major partner. This arrangement remained in place except in 2015, when Nitish Kumar joined the grand alliance. The notable change came in 2020 when the BJP contested only five fewer seats than the JD(U) and won two-thirds of the seats.
crime card
The intersection of crime and politics remains a matter of constant concern in India and Bihar. Although ‘Jungle Raj’, which points to high criminality, is often referred to as the RJD’s rule, candidates and sitting members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) of almost all parties in the state have a poor track record.
According to Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) data, of the 1,303 candidates contesting on 121 seats in the first phase, 354 (27%) had declared serious criminal cases against themselves while filing nominations.
These serious crimes, punishable by five years or more, include assault, murder, kidnapping, rape and crimes against women and children.
RJD showed the highest proportion, with 42 out of 70 candidates (60%) facing such charges. The BJP had 27 out of 48 candidates (56%), the Congress had 12 out of 23 (52%), while the newly formed Jan Suraj Party had 49 out of 114 candidates (43%). Among the key players, only 15 out of 57 JD(U) candidates (26%) had the least serious criminal cases.
The picture is no better among sitting MLAs – almost half (49%) of Bihar’s 241 MLAs face serious criminal charges.
gender paradox
Women have emerged as one of the most influential voter groups in Bihar, a trend reinforced by welfare and cash-transfer schemes targeted at them. The migration of men for work has also increased the electoral presence of women.
Their voting percentage has consistently been higher than that of men in the last three elections – and by a wide margin. In 2010, women’s turnout was 54.5% compared to men’s 51.5%. By 2015, the gap had widened to 60.5% for women compared to 53.3% for men. Even in 2020, when male turnout increased to 54.5%, women maintained a strong position of 59.7%.
However, this electoral strength has not translated into political representation. Women’s representation in the assembly declined from 14% in 2010 to just 10.7% in 2020.
ADR data also shows that only 9% of the candidates contesting in the first phase of the 2025 elections are women. Although this is a consistent trend across states, Bihar remains one of the 10 states with the highest female representation.
